Methodology

Blue Marble Research employs a top down approach to the analytical process. It’s unique approach to its analytical process and is an outgrowth of the Market Forecast events conducted over the past decade by Vinny Catalano. The ability to get “up close and personal” with many of Wall Street’s finest strategists, economists, geo-political and topical experts (see Events page), has enabled Vinny to learn and draw from their knowledge, insights, and wisdom.

 


 

An Integrated Global Thematic Approach

The research methodology employed by Blue Marble Research (BMR) has evolved somewhat since the publication of “Sectors and Styles”. It has taken on a more multi-dimensional approach to investment strategy by integrating a thematic analysis (mega trends and themes) with GEM.

GEM (government, economy, and the markets) begins with an analysis of all things political and economic (the G & E of GEM). A concurrent, yet distinct, analysis of the markets (M) takes place. The conclusions reached in from each separate and distinct analyses is then compared providing the input into

BMR believes that this blend of fundamental and technical analysis is superior to each analysis done separately without regard for each other.

A third concurrent part of the process is an identification and analysis of key trends and themes that transcend any one business cycle. This thematic analysis often provides the context within which much of the GEM analysis takes place. One thematic example is Globalization.

The final step in the investment strategy decision-making process is to apply two core investment principles that BMR utilizes - Critical Variables and Judgment - to the analysis completed thus far. BMR believes that since investing is a social science, the markets function in a state of dynamic change. Accordingly, the investment markets are constantly shifting their focus and ascribing different aspects of GEM and thematic issues greater or lesser importance. Through its analytical process, BMR seeks to identify “what matters most” to the majority of investors and, therefore, places greater or lesser importance accordingly.

Since investing is a social science (unlike the physical sciences), BMR believes that successful investment strategy requires careful judgment.

Applying What Is Learned

The application of our research is in the creation and maintenance of what we call "Diversification with a Tilt".

Diversification with a Tilt, simply put, is an over, even, or underweight decision process for each of the ten economic sectors, as deconstructed from the S&P 500. Successful decisions made on a sector and style basis enables BMR to achieve its goal of creating and maintaining an effective portfolio (Model Growth Portfolio).

 

2005 – 2013 Blue Marble Research